Saturday, 13th March 2004

Guessing the Future (3)

Bill Emmott’s book in the spotlight

by Christopher G. D. Tipper <chris.tipper@hotmail.co.uk>

The following is the third and final part of my review of “20:21 Vision” by Bill Emmott.

BILL EMMOTT defines the two questions confronting us at the start of the 21st century as follows:

“Will America continue to lead the world?”

“Will capitalism’s strengths outweigh its weaknesses sufficiently to encourage people and their governments to keep their faith with it, through thin times as well as thick?” (p.273)

I have already commented on his exploration of the issues raised by the first question in the first two parts of this review. The second half of the book is devoted to the future of capitalism and the impact on the environment of economic development.

In a smooth sequence of chapters, Unpopular, Unstable, Unequal(1), Unequal(2) and Unclean, Emmott discusses at length the problems we confront as the century commences. Liberal democracy and capitalism seem to have brought us to a position of unprecedented wealth and freedom, but the benefits are by no means spread evenly and many countries in the world are barely growing economically, and their people still don’t benefit from even modest amenities such as clean drinking water and proper nutrition. Capitalism it seems has brought unprecedented means to the wealthy few, and has left billions more unable to feed themselves, their numbers growing, caught in a vicious cycle of ill-health, ignorance and poverty.

At the same time, if one examines the history of the 20th century, one sees growing prosperity in the rich world and a narrowing gap between the ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’. The widening of the franchise, the growth of labour rights, and universal state education seem to have gone a long way to lessening social deprivation, and ensuring that the benefits of economic growth have been spread throughout society in a way that could only have been dreamed of by early 20th century socialists. Yet despite the fact that most western democracies now possess a numerous and prosperous middle-class, there remains the problem of the underclass, the ‘socially excluded’ minority, who are defined by their lack of basic educational skills, caught in a cycle of disintegrating families, petty crime and grinding poverty. The problems facing governments of all stripes are how to persuade the affluent majority to finance the measures needed to alleviate social deprivation and the crime that goes with it.

These are the two threads of Mr Emmott’s comments on inequality and it is clear that they demand different solutions. Surely the answer to the problem of poverty stricken nations is more trade and the exchange of ideas that goes with it, as is well argued in this book and on a weekly basis in Mr Emmott’s magazine. It is not at all clear that the problems of social inequality will be dealt with effectively without a broad policy mix of educational reform and effective social services, backed up by efficient policing. It is likely that this will be one of the burning issues of 21st century politics, certainly in the wealthy western democracies.

Mr Emmott is also surely right to point to the growing influence of corporate donations in the democratic process, particularly in the United States. “This interplay between business and government...eats at the very heart of liberal democracy.” (p. 177) But like most other commentators Mr Emmott is short of policy prescriptions. It does not take much insight to decide that television advertising comprises the bulk of political campaigning costs in the U.S. in particular. If this were curtailed then a large impetus for the business dollar will have evaporated. Perhaps this is one area where state power can play a role, by mandating free advertising slots, and measures to control the greed of broadcasters. Perhaps free-speech should actually mean ‘free’, as in ‘cheap’. But this is probably altogether too dirigiste for American politicians to contemplate. All I can say is that it works for us here in Britain.

Mr Emmott ranges widely over many areas of public policy and sometimes gallops over some tidy obstacles. Whole areas of economic policy can be dismissed in single paragraphs. Competition policy gets dealt with in two sentences:

“[Competition law] has enriched lawyers, and economists acting as ‘expert’ witnesses, and enforcement has sometimes followed a false trail. But by and large it has kept prices down and business invigorated, without destroying incentives.” (p.171)

No citations, no references, and sweeping generalisations. Does anyone remember the Microsoft anti-trust trial? Has their software become any cheaper? Do they still intimidate competitors? Thus are thorny issues tackled with abandon.

Emmott tackles environmental issues with a survey of statistical sources. He erects a straw man by quoting from the publicity to a 2001 PBS documentary on the environment, Earth on the Edge:

“Half the world’s wetlands lost. Half the forest chopped down. Half the fisheries depleted. We live on a planet pushed to the edge by a single species. Ours.” (p.243)

One by one, these ‘statistics’ are demolished, quoting from a variety of sources and using a variety of comparisons. A certain Professor J. R. McNeill has the most believable numbers it seems, and his figures are taken with a bigger pinch of salt in the ensuing pages than such august institutions as the Food and Agricultural Organisation or the United Nations. A ‘former member of Greenpeace’ is wheeled in, Dr Bjørn Lomberg, author of The Skeptical Environmentalist, and figures on biodiversity comprehensively deconstructed. The figures are vague, and so we mustn’t worry too much. “It’s not as bad as those pesky environmentalists say” is the sotto voce refrain. In the end it seems your favoured statistics can be tailored to the situation, and Mr Emmott is a firm sceptic.

Let’s restate that piece from PBS with Mr Emmott’s preferred statistics:

“15% of the world’s wetlands lost in the 20th Century. 4% of the forests chopped down since 1950. 35% of the world’s fisheries have declining yields. We live on a planet pushed several percentage points to the edge by a single species. Ours.”

Maybe not as catchy as the original, but clear enough that there are real issues that need to be tackled, and Mr Emmott is content to assume that they will solve themselves. “...Although...economic development brought about many of the problems or changes [to the environment] wealth ultimately proved to be the solution not the problem. Today the cleanest most environmentally safe societies are the rich ones; indeed those societies enjoy air and water that is cleaner than it has been for hundreds of years.” (p.253) If money were the only problem, the problems of the environment would be a cinch, Mr Emmott.

I have spent three parts examining 20:21 Vision because it is an important statement of the modern liberal position on public policy at the start of the 21st century. Mr Emmott is not really posing as a prophet—the world’s problems will not be solved by this thoughtful exposition. Nor is it a serious public platform for a posing pundit. Mr Emmott strives hard to debunk many favoured political causes of our time. But as I have said in part 2 of this review, at times he is such a convinced sceptic that he runs the risk of monumental complacency, and one can only assume that this is a man who has never had to struggle to put forward unpopular ideas. One reviewer said that this book “will set the agenda for the next ten years”. I doubt it will last that long. The arguments are flaccid, the discussion sometimes repetitive. Perhaps in the end it will go down as the public statement of a leading early twenty-first century journalist, a man who has covered the issues but is far from the coal-face of public policy. He states his philosophy as one of ‘paranoid optimism’. On the evidence of this book I would say Mr Emmott is a complacent optimist. No doubt it will be enjoyed by readers of his magazine. Stop

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